Rules for ending a long strategy (Only for Bitcoin)

There are some arguments in favor of the following assumptions:​ As soon as the price is above previews absolute ATH, there doubles within 4 weeks (or shorter) and subsequently heavily goes up, then wait another 30% increase and exit the long strategy.

Explanation

The ideal time to exit from a long strategy is the highest price, the ATH. But you can only do that if you know how high the ATH will be and / or when it will come.

 

That is not objectively possible like you can read here. On this site was deduced that neither the height nor the time of the next ATH can be guessed. There was only one rule so far: Each ATH was much higher than the previous one. Since the repeatability is proven, it is assumed that the next ATH will be higher than the last one. Of course, that's not certain (nothing is certain, at any stock exchange). But the probability of a higher ATH is good. So there are reasons for the following rule: The exit from a long strategy should not take place as long as the price is below the ATH of the last cycle.

Above the previous ATH, the charts had one thing in common. Look at the pictures. Shortly before the ATH, the price doubles within 4 weeks or less and then it goes up steeply. After this doubling, the ATH always came within 20 days or less.

So there are reasons for the following rule: The next absolute ATH is probably very close, if the price doubles within 4 weeks or less and after this doubling continues to rise steeply

 

But what does "next absolute ATH is very closed" mean, when exactly should one leave the long strategy? Well in April 2013, after doubling, the price went up another 260%. In the next cycle at the end of 2013 it was about 130% and ind the cycle after at the end of 2017 it was about 65%. As you can see, the increase after doubling has halved with every ATH. So there are reasons for the following rule: The price would next time after doubling only 30% go up to the new absolute ATH.

Gemeinamkeiten_vor_ATH.png