When should one enter the crypto market?

 

A long strategy means speculating on a rising trend in prices. The ideal time to start a long strategy is the absolute low in a cycle (Cryptos run in cycles, read more here about it). However, when the low comes, nobody knows that it is the absolute low. Because the absolute low is part of the bear market and in a bear market it goes often even deeper after a low. However, in each cycle a consolidation near the absolute low has taken place. This consolidation phase has taken several months and is easy to see it because it usually always came just after a new low and the chart is running for a relatively long time nearly sideways and quite calm, which is in complete contrast to the expired bear market. Due to the relatively long consolidation phase you have time to recognize them.

So there are reasons for the following rule: The entry into a long strategy can be made as soon as the volatile bear market is over, recognized by a month-long calm, approximately sideways-running chart.

 

But beware: The consolidation phase can be 15 months, as in 2015/2016 you can see on the upper picture, but it also can be much shorter. In 2019, it only took a good three months as you can see on the lower picture. That's why you should not take too much time to get started. It is better to start early and wait a few months longer for the beginning of the bull market than to miss a possible strong start. If the entry in the consolidation phase was missed, then it is not optimal, but you can still get in very good profits when a new ATH comes. So there are reasons for the following rule: Any entry under the last ATH can bring good profits, because this ATH is far exceeded when a new ATH comes.

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