How big are the winning chances with crypto?
The largest influx of people in the crypto market did not happen because of the great technology or use cases, but always in connection with a hype. Now people are just greedy. In a hype the market goes crazy, increases of 1000% within a few days are possible and a hundred times within a few weeks. Many have become rich with it and everyone now believes that they can get rich. The problem is that the highest point is reached when the masses hear about it. So most newcomers buy at the highest point. After that it goes down, these people lose a lot of money and this leads to a big disappointment, which means that many leave the market again. And that's one of the reasons why the crypto market is not popular with the masses and is only seen as a dangerous bubble.
But to believe that can be a big mistake because the crypto market cycles offer enormous opportunities if one has patience and next hype comes. Bitcoin for example had four cycles by the end of 2017 like are shown by the pictures. In each cycle there was both a strong bear market (red lines) which means price downwards tendency and a strong bull market (green lines) which means price upwards tendency. The impressive thing is, however, that every bull market was much stronger than the bear market before and therefore each cycle ended with an overwhelming all time high (ATH). Of course, there is no guarantee that it will be so in the future. However, the proven repeatability of the ATHs is a clear indication that another overwhelming ATH presumably will come. Another important insight from the past is that the cycles were different in length and the difference between the ATHs was never the same. Therefore, no forecast can be made at what time the next ATH will arrive and how high it will be.
In conclusion, it can be said that the chances of winning in the crypto market are huge if you consistently enter the consolidation phase and wait patiently until the next possible ATH and are not impressed by short-term setbacks. Please note that these are opportunities, not certainties. That means it's not all certain, but there is a good chance.
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